Exploiting Uncertainty and Error to Accelerate Simulations
David M. Nicol, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, United States
The Richness of Modeling and Simulation and Its Body of Knowledge
Tuncer Ören, University of Ottawa, Canada
Advances in e-Science and e-Research: e-Infrastructures for Modelling and Simulation
Simon Taylor, Brunel University, United Kingdom
Modelling for the Complex Issue of Groundwater Management
Anthony J. Jakeman, Australian National University, Australia
Exploiting Uncertainty and Error to Accelerate Simulations
David M. Nicol
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
United States
Brief Bio
David M. Nicol is Professor of Computer and Electrical Engineering at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, and Director of the Information Trust Institute.
Previously he held faculty positions at the College of William and Mary, and Dartmouth College.
His research interests include high performance computing, simulation modeling and analysis, and security.
He was elected Fellow of the IEEE, and Fellow of the ACM for his contributions in these areas.
He is co-author of the widely used textbook "Discrete-Event Systems Simulation", and was the inaugural awardee of the ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation's Distinguished Contributions Award, for his contributions in research, teaching, and service in the field of simulation.
Abstract
A simulation modeler constantly makes choices about abstractions, particularly in definition of entity state, and the granularity of temporal activity in the model. It is well known and highly practiced that higher levels of abstraction typically lead to less computational activity per unit simulation unit, and hence faster advancement of the simulation clock with respect to the real-time clock. At heart, the modeler accepts more error (with respect to the physical system being simulated) to accelerate the simulation.
In our recent work we've explored other ways to exploit uncertainty and/or error in a model, with the express intent of supporting faster execution times, particularly on parallel simulations. This talk covers the main concepts, and illustrates the approach through examples drawn from the modeling and simulation of computer and communication networks.
The Richness of Modeling and Simulation and Its Body of Knowledge
Tuncer Ören
University of Ottawa
Canada
http://www.site.uottawa.ca/~oren/
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Brief Bio
Tuncer Ören is a professor emeritus of Computer Science at the University of Ottawa, Canada. He has been involved with simulation since 1965. His research interests include: (1) advancing modeling and simulation methodologies; (2) agent-directed simulation (full synergy of agents and simulation); (3) agents for cognitive and emotive simulations including representations of human personality, emotions, emotional intelligence, understanding, sources of misunderstanding and conflict; (4) reliability, quality assurance, failure avoidance, and ethics; as well as (5) body of knowledge and (6) terminology of modeling simulation. He has over 540 publications –some translated in Chinese, German and Turkish– including 50 books and proceedings. He has contributed to over 500 conferences and seminars held in 40 countries. He has been keynote or invited speaker, or honorary chair in about half of them. Dr. Ören has been recognized, by IBM Canada, as a pioneer of computing in Canada. He received "Information Age Award" from the Turkish Ministry of Culture and an Honor Award from the Language Association of Turkey. He was inducted to SCS Modeling and Simulation Hall of Fame –Lifetime Achievement Award. He is a distinguished lecturer, a fellow as well as AVP for ethics of SCS. A book about him was edited by L. Yilmaz in 2015 (Concepts and Methodologies for Modeling and Simulation: A Tribute to Tuncer Ören, Springer.)
Abstract
Development of a Body of Knowledge (BoK) Index of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) to satisfy the requirements of several types of stakeholders is urgently needed. The richness of M&S, which provides a vital infrastructure to hundreds of application areas, can only be reflected by an appropriate BoK Index, if wide scopes of all its many aspects are taken into consideration. To explore the richness of M&S, its several dimensions as well as highlights of over 400 application-independent types of simulation will be presented.
Advances in e-Science and e-Research: e-Infrastructures for Modelling and Simulation
Simon Taylor
Brunel University
United Kingdom
Brief Bio
Dr. Simon J E Taylor is a Reader in Computing in the Department of Information Systems and Computing at Brunel University and leader of the ICT Innovation Group. He is Chair of the COTS Simulation Package Interoperability Standards Group under SISO and the co-Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Simulation and. He leads the Tools and Training Theme of the Multidisciplinary Assessment of Technology Centre for Healthcare (MATCH) at Brunel. He was Chair of ACM’s SIGSIM (2005-2008). He regularly consults with industry and has published widely in simulation modelling. His recent work has focused on the knowledge transfer of advanced ICT techniques into simulation modelling and the impact of advanced research infrastructures in Europe and Africa.
Abstract
Scientists today are exploiting exciting new developments in Information and Communication Technology such as high speed networks, high performance computing and distributed collaborative environments. These cyberinfastructures or e-Infrastructures are facilitating e-Science and e-Research and the formation of global virtual research communities capable of addressing challenging large scale problems with a critical mass of expertise. What does this mean for academic and industrial Modelling and Simulation?
This presentation discusses how e-Infrastructure advances can be used to the benefit of modelling and simulation researchers and practitioners. The presentation asks if the development e-Infrastructures for Modelling and Simulation is really necessary or critical to making an urgently needed step-change in the field.
Modelling for the Complex Issue of Groundwater Management
Anthony J. Jakeman
Australian National University
Australia
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Brief Bio
Tony Jakeman is Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, and Director of the Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, The Australian National University. He has been an Environmental Scientist and Modeller for 35 years and has over 300 reviewed publications in the open literature. His early career background is in applied mathematical modelling and hydrology. Interests include integrated assessment methods and decision support systems for water and associated land resource problems, including modelling and management of water supply and quality problems in relation to climate, land use and policy changes and their effects on biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes.
Jakeman has undertaken research projects and consultancies for AusAID, the Murray-Darling Basin Commission/Authority, many Australian federal, state and local government agencies, and Catchment Management Authorities, often working as project leader. For example he is leader of the integration program in the recently established National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training (groundwater.com.au). He has held visiting positions at Stanford, Cambridge and Lancaster Universities, CSIRO, IRSTEA in France, the US Geological Survey; and is Adjunct Professor at the University of Western Australia.
Scientific and organisational activities include: Editor-in-Chief, Environmental Modelling and Software (Elsevier) since 1996 – a 2009 Impact Factor of 3.058; Foundation President, International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (2000-2006) and elected Fellow (2004); President and Fellow (2009), Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Inc.; Vice-President, International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (2009 - ); International Advisory Board of the C.T. de Wit Graduate School for Production Ecology and Resource Conservation, Wageningen University (2008 - ); and regularly a member of scientific advisory committees of international conferences.
Abstract
Modelling and simulation are becoming increasingly important for addressing today’s environmental problems. Many of these, such as assessing the impacts of climate change and the sustainability of groundwater systems, are messy or wicked problems. These are defined by there being multiple stakeholders and decision makers with competing and conflicting goals, and where the systems of interest are complex - being social, economic, and ecological - and are subject to a range of uncertainties caused by limited data, information and knowledge. Modellers can nevertheless play a key role in resolving and providing support for clarifying decision options for managing environmental issues. Indeed the more messy the problem the greater need for a proper process of ‘integrated assessment.’ In this process modellers undertake integration in several ways. They can help to frame the right problem, identify and include the key stakeholders, map out the system interactions, select the appropriate modelling paradigm(s) for analyzing consequences of policy changes and other influences, manage uncertainties and communicate them. This talk will illustrate the effectiveness of integrated assessment and decision support using our experiences in the water resources sector, provide some guidance on the process and lay out some of the challenges ahead.