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Keynote Lecture

 

Is SimDec Truly a Revelatory Approach for Global Sensitivity Analysis or is it Turtles All the Way Down?

Julian Scott Yeomans
York University
Canada
 

Brief Bio

Julian is a Professor of Operations Management & Information Systems and the Program Director for both the Master of Management in Artificial Intelligence and the Master of Business Analytics at the Schulich School of Business, York University, Toronto. In collaboration with Mariia Kozlova (LUT University), Julian has created SimDec, which has been used as a technique for global sensitivity analysis. SimDec combines visual uncertainty analytics with an innovative computational method for identifying and quantifying the influence of factor impacts. Recent application studies have examined small modular nuclear reactors, 3D printing in construction, agricultural food-water-energy systems, aviation electrification, healthcare, and superconducting magnets at CERN. To promote the widest adoption and penetration of SimDec as possible, a downloadable free-of-charge electronic book, together with open-source computer code in Python, Julia, R, and Matlab and a “no-code-required” web dashboard, have been made freely available. For a “low-tech” overview of SimDec you can read Julian’s recent interview in the Schulich Research Newsletter.


Abstract
SimDec (“simulation decomposition”) is a recently developed analytical approach that enables a visualizable analysis of impacts and interactions within data. Such visualizations can be easily understood and interpreted by all users regardless of technical background. While straightforward and elegant, SimDec enhances explanatory capabilities by visually “teasing out” inherent cause-and-effect relationships, while also uncovering counter-intuitive behaviours. Recent studies have indicated that SimDec might be considered the pre-eminent technique for conducting applied, “real world” global sensitivity analysis. Could such research revelations truly herald the second coming or is SimDec simply esoteric rot – nothing but turtles all the way down? You be the judge.



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