SIMULTECH 2016 Abstracts

Area 1 - Simulation Tools and Platforms
Full Papers Short Papers
Area 2 - Formal Methods
Full Papers Short Papers
Area 3 - Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation
Full Papers Short Papers
Area 4 - Application Domains
Full Papers Short Papers

Area 1 - Simulation Tools and Platforms

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 10
Title:

Combining Harvesting Operation Optimisations using Strategy-based Simulation
Authors:

Luis Diogo Couto, Peter W. V. Tran-Jørgensen and Gareth T. C. Edwards
Abstract: Modelling and simulation assist in decision support or planning activities by allowing efficient exploration of multiple scenarios in a situation where testing in a real setting is impractical. This exploration is often done by varying numerical parameters in the model such as physical dimensions or speed in order to find the optimal configuration. However, for certain problems, in order to find optimal solutions it is beneficial to vary the algorithms that are used to implement the behaviour of the model. For example, when calculating optimised routes for harvesters and other vehicles in a harvest operation, the choice of optimisation algorithms is an important part of the problem. Traditional modelling and simulation techniques do not allow us to vary algorithms across simulations effectively. In this paper, we address this issue by applying the strategy pattern from software engineering to the construction of a formal model that enables different combinations of harvest optimisation algorithms to be analysed effectively. This approach can be generalised to other planning activities where multiple algorithms need to be considered.
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Paper Nr: 12
Title:

Simulating Spark Cluster for Deployment Planning, Evaluation and Optimization
Authors:

Qian Chen, Kebing Wang, Zhaojuan Bian, Illia Cremer, Gen Xu and Yejun Guo
Abstract: As the most active project in the Hadoop ecosystem these days (Zaharia, 2014), Spark is a fast and general purpose engine for large-scale data processing. Thanks to its advanced Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) execution engine and in-memory computing mechanism, Spark runs programs up to 100x faster than Hadoop MapReduce in memory, or 10x faster on disk (Apache, 2016). However, Spark performance is impacted by many system software, hardware and dataset factors especially memory and JVM related, which makes capacity planning and tuning for Spark clusters extremely difficult. Current planning methods are mostly estimation based and are highly dependent on experience and trial-and-error. These approaches are far from efficient and accurate, especially with increasing software stack complexity and hardware diversity. Here, we propose a novel Spark simulator based on CSMethod (Bian et al., 2014), extension with a fine-grained multi-layered memory subsystem, well suitable for Spark cluster deployment planning，performance evaluation and optimization before system provisioning. The whole Spark application execution life cycle is simulated by the proposed simulator, including DAG generation, Resilient Distributed Dataset (RDD) processing and block management. Hardware activities derived from these software operations are dynamically mapped onto architecture models for processors, storage, and network devices. Performance behaviour of cluster memory system at multiple layers (Spark, JVM, OS, hardware) are modeled as an enhanced fine-grained individual global library. Experimental results with several popular Spark micro benchmarks and a real case IoT workloads demonstrate that our Spark Simulator achieves high accuracy with an average error rate below 7%. With light weight computing resource requirement (a laptop is enough) our simulator runs at the same speed level than native execution on multi-node high-end cluster.
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Paper Nr: 15
Title:

An Image Generator Platform to Improve Cell Tracking Algorithms - Simulation of Objects of Various Morphologies, Kinetics and Clustering
Authors:

Pedro Canelas, Leonardo Martins, André Mora, Andre S. Ribeiro and José Fonseca
Abstract: Several major advances in Cell and Molecular Biology have been made possible by recent advances in live-cell microscopy imaging. To support these efforts, automated image analysis methods such as cell segmentation and tracking during a time-series analysis are needed. To this aim, one important step is the validation of such image processing methods. Ideally, the “ground truth” should be known, which is possible only by manually labelling images or in artificially produced images. To simulate artificial images, we have developed a platform for simulating biologically inspired objects, which generates bodies with various morphologies and kinetics and, that can aggregate to form clusters. Using this platform, we tested and compared four tracking algorithms: Simple Nearest-Neighbour (NN), NN with Morphology and two DBSCAN-based methods. We show that Simple NN works well for small object velocities, while the others perform better on higher velocities and when clustering occurs. Our new platform for generating new benchmark images to test image analysis algorithms is openly available at (http://griduni.uninova.pt/Clustergen/ClusterGen_v1.0.zip).
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Paper Nr: 20
Title:

Molecular Dynamics Use in Personalized Cancer Medicine - Example of MET Y501C Mutation
Authors:

Igor F. Tsigelny, Razelle Kurzrock, Åge Aleksander Skjevik, Valentina L. Kouznetsova and Sadakatsu Ikeda
Abstract: We explored a possible new method for prediction of activating mutations in cancer-related proteins. This method is based on elucidation of flexibility of proteins associated in activating complexes. Based on the theory of intermediate binding complexes, the binding process is not only related to the three-dimensional structure of proteins, but also to the four-dimensional set of possible conformations allowed by the flexible regions of the involved members of the associated complex. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we found that an Y501C mutation in the MET gene might activate it. Using this information, a specific drug that functioned as a potent MET inhibitor was prescribed and had a salutary impact on the tumor.
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Paper Nr: 50
Title:

HLogo: A Parallel Haskell Variant of NetLogo
Authors:

Nikolaos Bezirgiannis, I. S. W. B. Prasetya and Ilias Sakellariou
Abstract: Agent-based Modeling (ABM) has become quite popular to the simulation community for its usability and wide area of applicability. However, speed is not usually a trait that ABM tools are characterized of attaining. This paper presents HLogo, a parallel variant of the NetLogo ABM framework, that seeks to increase the performance of ABM by utilizing Software Transactional Memory and multi-core CPUs, all the while maintaining the user friendliness of NetLogo. HLogo is implemented as a Domain Specific Language embedded in the functional language Haskell, which means that it also inherits Haskell’s features, such as its static typing.
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Short Papers
Paper Nr: 21
Title:

Local Point Control of a New Rational Quartic Interpolating Spline
Authors:

Zhi Liu, Kai Xiao, Xiaoyan Liu and Ping Jiang
Abstract: A new rational quartic interpolating spline based on function values is constructed. The rational quartic interpolating spline curves have simple and explicit representation with parameters. The monotonicity-preserving, C2 continuity and boundedness of rational quartic interpolating spline curves are confirmed. Function value control and derivative value control of rational quartic interpolation spline are given respectively. The advantage of these control methods is that they can be applied to modifying the local shape of interpolating curve only by selecting suitable parameters according to the practical requirements.
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Paper Nr: 22
Title:

An Experimental and CFD Analysis of a Two-Phase Flow Air Induction Nozzle with Agricultural Application
Authors:

Foad Vashahi, Sothea Ra, Yong Choi and Jeekeun Lee
Abstract: The two phase flow parametric study on the air induction nozzle is presented with water and air as working fluid where liquid was supplied at the pre-orifice with various inlet pressures ranged from 3 to 6 bar. The interaction between air and water at molecular level at the orifice exit leads to forming a strong shear layer intensified with increase in inlet pressure. Mean diameter and void fraction in each bubble and their individual shapes is adjusted prior to the desired criteria. Thus, it is vital to regulate the ratio of intake air to the supplied liquid so that the generated micro bubbles fit the design criteria. CFD analysis was accompanied via commercial software STAR CCM+ from cd-adapco and validated against experimental data to find the most appropriate turbulence model. Then, the chosen model is used to investigate design parameters and their effect on the desired parameters. A volume of fluid (VOF) method of RANS models used to undertake the air-water interaction. Results of such comparison revealed minor priority of the Realizable k-ε to the k-ω model. In addition, the unsteady state solution presented remarkable predictions in compare to that of steady state solution in particular predicting air behaviour.
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Paper Nr: 26
Title:

Distributed PowerShell Load Generator (D-PLG): A New Tool for Dynamically Generating Network Traffic
Authors:

Paul Jordan, Chip Van Patten, Gilbert Peterson and Andrew Sellers
Abstract: Recently, a framework has been developed to automate the training of prediction algorithms but has only been tested on one system. In order to generalize the approach a few key functions must be performed. One of these functions is load generation. Unfortunately, a valid load generator has not been developed for a Microsoft Windows active directory environment. In this paper we introduce and detail a tool that we have developed to make the implementation of this new framework possible in a Microsoft domain, we present data generated by our tool to demonstrate its efficacy, and finish with several extensions and applications for our tool.
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Paper Nr: 42
Title:

Magnetohydrodynamics Simulation in a Sphere by Yin–Yang–Zhong Grid
Authors:

Akira Kageyama
Abstract: For numerical simulations in a sphere, we have recently proposed a new spherical grid system called Yin– Yang–Zhong grid. The Yin–Yang–Zhong grid is composed of three components—Yin, Yang, and Zhong— that are combined to cover a spherical region with partial overlaps on their borders. Mutual interpolations are applied to sew the components together, following the overset grid methodology. We review the idea of the Yin–Yang–Zhong grid and its applications to magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations in a sphere. We also present visualization methods employed to analyze the Yin–Yang–Zhong simulations.
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Paper Nr: 67
Title:

A Survey on Risk-management and Tooling Support for Procurement Processes in Supply Chains
Authors:

Stephan Printz, Johann Philipp von Cube, Christophe Ponsard, Renaud De Landtsheer, Gustavo Ospina, Philippe Massonet, Robert Schmitt and Sabina Jeschke
Abstract: Managing risks in supply chains is challenging for most companies given that the globalisation process is strengthening production constraints and also introducing more procurements risks. This is difficult for smaller companies in particular as they lack the resources necessary to develop specific expertise or buy expensive tools. Our research aims to address these issues by proposing an easy to use, yet powerful, tool-supported methodology. As a first step, we conducted a survey of the relevant industries, which were mostly based in Germany and Belgium. The goal of the survey was to assess the current state of risk management practices and identify the associated requirements specific to our SME target. This paper presents the outcomes of our survey based on the results collected from a representative sample of 70 participating companies. These results yield interesting observations regarding the characterisation of the people in charge of risk management, their perception of the importance of risk categories, the current ways to manage these risks and the tooling used. We also collected several recommendations for how tools could better support risk assessment and drive the rest of our research.
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Paper Nr: 68
Title:

Wireless Sensor Network Simulation for Fault Detection in Industrial Processes
Authors:

Rui Pinto, Rosaldo J. F. Rossetti and Gil Gonçalves
Abstract: Sensor data is extremely important to monitor machines at the shop-floor level and its environmental surrounding conditions for condition-based monitoring, machine diagnosis and process adaptation to new requirements. Based on the described scope, self-diagnostics and self-organizing capabilities are core functionalities of any Industrial Wireless Sensor Network (IWSN). In the present work, a simulated case study was developed with the main intent of validating techniques implemented for sensor data diagnosis of error detection and equipment failure. The scenarios explored try to mimic some common situations of a manufacturing environment when dealing with WSNs, where a piece of sensor equipment suddenly stops working or an unpredictable change in the environment leads to faulty data readings. This paper introduces Castalia and describes how it was used to simulate a direct application of an Optical Metrology System on an industrial Resistance Spot Welding process, which is composed of a camera and several luminosity sensors. More specifically, a sensor data validation module was proposed, implemented and used to extend Castalia functionalities.
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Paper Nr: 69
Title:

Query-based Risks Management of Manufacturing Processes
Authors:

Christophe Ponsard, Renaud De Landtsheer, Gustavo Ospina, Stephan Printz and Johann Philipp von Cube
Abstract: Managing risks in supply chains is challenging for most companies, given the globalisation process which is strengthening the production constraints and also introducing more procurements risks. This is especially difficult for smaller companies because they generally lack resources to develop a specific expertise or buy expensive tools. Our research aims at addressing those issues by proposing an easy to use, yet powerful simulation framework based on Discrete Event Simulation. In our previous work we demonstrated the expressiveness of our modelling language and the efficiency of our simulation framework. The focus of this paper is on the usability dimension of the developed tool. We describe the global process driving the company through the whole risk control process, from identification, modelling, simulation and analysis. We demonstrate our ideas on a web-based prototype composed on a number of wizards and component supporting the structured analysis of simulation outcome in direct relation with the risks.
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Paper Nr: 16
Title:

Interactive GUI Software for Natural Rubber Vulcanization Degree Numerical Prediction
Authors:

Gabriele Milani and Federico Milani
Abstract: A graphical user interface software called GURU suitable to fit rheometer curves in Natural Rubber (NR) sulphur vulcanization is proposed. Experimental data are loaded using Excel (experimental output comes from a moving die rheometer registration), normalized and fitted with a numerical model that follows the general scheme proposed by Han. Han’s chemical model translates into mathematics by means of a first order ODE system, admitting a closed form solution for the crosslinking density. Three kinetic constants characterize the model and they must be found in such a way to minimize the absolute error between normalized experimental data and numerical predictions. GURU works to minimize the error by means of a trial and error procedure handled interactively by means of sliders, assigning a value for each kinetic constant and a visual comparison between numerical and experimental curves. An experimental case of technical relevance is shown as benchmark.
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Paper Nr: 24
Title:

MYNTS: Multi-phYsics NeTwork Simulator
Authors:

Tanja Clees, Kläre Cassirer, Nils Hornung, Bernhard Klaassen, Igor Nikitin, Lialia Nikitina, Robin Suter and Inna Torgovitskaia
Abstract: We present a generic approach for the simulation of transport networks, where the steps of physical modeling and numerical simulation are effectively separated. The model is described by a list of physical equations and inequalities as problem constraints for non-linear programming (NLP). This list is translated to the language of expression trees and is made accessible for the numerical solution by standard NLP solvers. Various problem types can be solved in this way, including stationary and transient network simulation, feasibility analysis and energy-saving optimization. The simulation is provided for different disciplines, such as gas transport, water supply and electric power networks. We demonstrate the implementation of this approach in our multiphysics network simulator.
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Paper Nr: 46
Title:

NSIM-ACE: An Interconnection Network Simulator for Evaluating Remote Direct Memory Access
Authors:

Ryutaro Susukita, Yoshiyuki Morie, Takeshi Nanri and Hidetomo Shibamura
Abstract: Network simulation is an important technique for designing interconnection networks and communication libraries. Also network simulations are useful for the analysis of internal communication behavior in parallel applications. This paper introduces a new interconnection network simulator NSIM-ACE. This simulator enables us to evaluate RDMA directly while existing simulators do not have such capability. NSIM-ACE also provides a similar user-interface to RDMA-based parallel programs for easy use. The experimental evaluation indicates that the simulation accuracy is sufficient to compare performance of some RDMA-based algorithms and the simulator is capable of predicting performance scalability for non-extinct networks.
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Paper Nr: 60
Title:

Towards Multi-Level-Simulation using Dynamic Cloud Environments
Authors:

Stefan H. A. Wittek, Michael Göttsche, Andreas Rausch and Jens Grabowski
Abstract: The engineering of cyber physical systems requires holistic simulation perspectives. To cope with the complexity of these systems, we aim to provide a simulation methodology that is efficient regarding model complexity. The required holistic perspective is reached on a coarse level, which is co-simulated with multiple detailed models of some areas of the system that are of particular interest to the investigated phenomena. Which areas are thus “zoomed in” is dynamic during a simulation run. To reflect this, the resulting Multi-Level-Simulation is deployed in a dynamic cloud environment, using the provided hardware resources in a cost-efficient manner.
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Paper Nr: 64
Title:

Methods of Modelling People using Discrete-event Simulation
Authors:

Andrew Greasley
Abstract: Discrete-event simulation (DES) is a developed technology used to model manufacturing and service systems. However, although the importance of modelling people in a DES has been recognised, there is little guidance on how this can be achieved in practice. The results from a literature review were used in order to identify examples of the use of DES to model people. Each article was examined in order to determine the method used to model people within the simulation study. It was found that there are no common methods but a diverse range of approaches used to model human behaviour in DES. This paper provides an outline of the approaches used to model people in terms of their decision making, availability for work, task performance and arrival rate. The outcome brings together the current knowledge in this area and will be of interest to researchers considering developing a methodology for modelling people in DES and to practitioners engaged with a simulation project involving the modelling of people’s behaviour.
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Area 2 - Formal Methods

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 19
Title:

A Globally Convergent Method for Generalized Resistive Systems and its Application to Stationary Problems in Gas Transport Networks
Authors:

Tanja Clees, Nils Hornung, Igor Nikitin and Lialia Nikitina
Abstract: We consider generalized resistive systems, comprising linear Kirchhoff equations and non-linear element equations, depending on the flow through the element and on two adjacent nodal variables. The derivatives of the element equation should possess a special signature. For such systems we prove the global non-degeneracy of the Jacobi matrix and the applicability of globally convergent solution tracing algorithms. We show that the stationary problems in gas transport networks belong to this generalized resistive type. We apply the tracing algorithm to several realistic networks and compare its performance with a generic Newton solver.
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Paper Nr: 41
Title:

Subtask Scheduling and Predictive-Delay Control - Comparison and Hybridization
Authors:

Zakaria Sahraoui, Abdenour Labed, Mohamed Ahmed-Nacer and Emmanuel Grolleau
Abstract: Amongst real-time scheduling community, several methods aim at enhencing the performance of the control. Subtask scheduling is one of the embedded convenient methods that reduce the input-output latency in the control loops. The predictive-Delay control is a new method based on input-output latency prediction in order to reduce the impact of this artefact on the quality of the control. Combining both subtask scheduling and predictive delay methods can be of a great help in combatting the impairments induced by this scheduling artifact.
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Short Papers
Paper Nr: 65
Title:

Quantifying Fidelity for Timed Transition Systems
Authors:

Sangeeth Saagar Ponnusamy, Vincent Albert and Patrice Thebault
Abstract: The paper addresses one of the fundamental questions in using simulation as a means for system verification and validation, namely, how far the simulation model represents the transition timings of the real system. A formal quantification of this difference in transition timings of a simulation model with respect to the system specification is presented based on game theoretic distance notions from literature. In this two player game, simulation model tries to mimic the system’s transitions and incurs a distance if it fails to match the timing of the transition. Fidelity of simulation model is presented through this distance notion based on the quantitative simulation relations and timed simulation game. This game between two timed transition systems is modelled in petri-net formalism and a quantitative reachability graph is generated using TINA tool embedded in ProDEVS simulation platform to explore all such player strategies. The resulting exhaustive exploration yields a global fidelity distribution of the simulation model in terms of transition timings which could be analysed in ProDEVS to gain further insight into the simulation model behaviour with respect to the system model. The approach is demonstrated on a buffer system modelling case study to validate a processor through simulation.
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Paper Nr: 40
Title:

Autoencoder Networks for Water Demand Predictive Modelling
Authors:

Ishmael S. Msiza and Tshilidzi Marwala
Abstract: Following a number of studies that have interrogated the usability of an autoencoder neural network in various classification and regression approximation problems, this manuscript focuses on its usability in water demand predictive modelling, with the Gauteng Province of the Republic of South Africa being chosen as a case study. Water demand predictive modelling is a regression approximation problem. This autoencoder network is constructed from a simple multi-layer network, with a total of 6 parameters in both the input and output units, and 5 nodes in the hidden unit. These 6 parameters include a figure that represents population size and water demand values of 5 consecutive days. The water demand value of the fifth day is the variable of interest, that is, the variable that is being predicted. The optimum number of nodes in the hidden unit is determined through the use of a simple, less computationally expensive technique. The performance of this network is measured against prediction accuracy, average prediction error, and the time it takes the network to generate a single output. The dimensionality of the network is also taken into consideration. In order to benchmark the performance of this autoencoder network, a conventional neural network is also implemented and evaluated using the same measures of performance. The conventional network is slightly outperformed by the autoencoder network.
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Paper Nr: 44
Title:

Automatic Compositional Verification of Probabilistic Safety Properties for Inter-organisationalWorkflow Processes
Authors:

Redouane Bouchekir, Saida Boukhedouma and Mohand Cherif Boukala
Abstract: For many complex systems, it is important to verify formally their correctness; the aim is to guarantee the reliability and the correctness of such systems before their effective deployment. Several methods have been proposed to this effect using different formal tools such as Probabilistic Automata (PA). In this paper we focus on verification of service-based inter-organizational workflow (IOWF) processes which support collaboration and cooperation between WF processes attached to several partners, and specified using the business process execution language (BPEL4WS). Then, IOWF processes are translated to Probabilistic Automata (PA) models. More than verification support, PA provides a numerical evaluation of the IOWF process. We also propose the use of compositional verification to cope with the state space explosion problem. The IOWF behavior is checked against probabilistic safety properties. The verification and the analysis are performed in an automated way using the PRISM model checker and based on the assume-guarantee reasoning rule.
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Area 3 - Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 31
Title:

Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Software Architecture for Health Care
Authors:

Karam Mustapha and Jean-Marc Frayret
Abstract: Health Care (HC) organizational structure and related management policies are essential factors of HC system. They can be tested through simulations in order to improve HC performance. To simplify the design of these simulations we have proposed a modelling approach based on an additional structure. The modelling approach considers the complexity of the modelling process, where in the various models are developed. This approach is organized according to two main abstraction levels, a conceptual level and a simulation level. We developed a computer simulation environment of patient care trajectories using the agent in order to evaluate new ap-proaches to increase hospital productivity and adapt hospital clinical practice conditions for the elderly and pa-tients with multiple chronic diseases. For that, we have developed a multi-agent framework to simulate the ac-tivities and roles in a HC system. This framework can be used to assist the collaborative scheduling of com-plex tasks that involve multiple personals and resources. In addition, it can be used to study the efficiency of the HC system and the influence of different policies.
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Paper Nr: 45
Title:

Parameter Identification of Canalyzing Boolean Functions with Ternary Vectors for Gene Networks
Authors:

Annika Eichler and Gerwald Lichtenberg
Abstract: In gene dynamics modeling, parameters of Boolean networks are identified from continuous data under various assumptions expressed by logical constraints. These constraints may restrict the dynamics of the network to the subclass of canalyzing functions, which are known to be appropriate for genetic networks. This paper introduces a high performance algorithm, which solves the parameter identification problem by so called Zhegalkin identification and exploits the restriction to canalyzing functions resulting in reduced calculation time. The canalyzing constraint is formulated in terms of orthogonal ternary vector lists - which are intrinsically used in a Branch-and-Cut algorithm obeying this constraint. The algorithm is applied to mRNA micro array data from mice under different contaminant conditions and good correspondence to a known apoptotic pathway can be shown.
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Paper Nr: 66
Title:

Cache Aware Instruction Accurate Simulation of a 3-D Coastal Ocean Model on Low Power Hardware
Authors:

Dominik Schoenwetter, Alexander Ditter, Vadym Aizinger, Balthasar Reuter and Dietmar Fey
Abstract: High level hardware simulation and modeling techniques matured significantly over the last years and have become more and more important in practice, e.g., in the industrial hardware development and automotive domain. Yet, there are many other challenging application areas such as numerical solvers for environmental or disaster prediction problems, e.g., tsunami and storm surge simulations, that could greatly profit from accurate and efficient hardware simulation. Such applications rely on complex mathematical models that are discretized using suitable numerical methods, and require a close collaboration between mathematicians and computer scientists to attain desired computational performance on current micro architectures and code parallelization techniques to produce accurate simulation results as fast as possible. This complex and detailed simulation requires a lot of time during preparation and execution. Especially the execution on non-standard or new hardware may be challenging and potentially error prone. In this paper, we focus on a high level simulation approach for determining accurate runtimes of applications using instruction accurate modeling and simulation. We extend the basic instruction accurate simulation technology from OVP using cache models in conjunction with a statistical cost function, which enables high precision and significantly better runtime predictions compared to the pure instruction accurate approach.
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Short Papers
Paper Nr: 13
Title:

Modeling and Simulation of Pedestrian Behaviour - As Planning Support for Building Design
Authors:

Michael Jaros, Monika Di Angelo and Peter Ferschin
Abstract: Major challenges in the simulation of pedestrians are the realistic behaviour of agents, realistic appearance and variety, and how to conveniently define larger crowds of pedestrians. In this paper, pedestrian behaviour in buildings is analysed and structured in order to develop a behavioural model for buildings with high pedestrian flows. Observing pedestrians at a larger train station is used as a basis for the creation of a three-level behavioural model. The model follows a multi-agent-based approach and consists of a strategic, tactical, and operational level. A strategy indicates why a person visits a building and is broken down into activities on the tactical level. In this model, the strategy remains constant for an agent during its lifetime, while activities and associated areas are chosen and prioritized dynamically. This results in a coarse route through the facility. The operational level consists of path planning and obstacle avoidance. The suggested behavioural model has been implemented with the Unity framework and was tested using a 3D model of an existing train station. The purpose of the simulation is to provide building planners with feedback about space utilisation by its users.
Paper Nr: 48
Title:

Local Ozone Prediction with Hybrid Model
Authors:

Dejan Gradišar, Boštjan Grašič, Marija Zlata Božnar, Primož Mlakar and Juš Kocijan
Abstract: Tropospheric ozone in high concentrations can cause health problems. A reliable alerting system is needed. In this paper we present the hybrid model that can be used for ozone forecasting in urban microlocations. The hybrid model is combined from meteorological and air-quality models (covering large geographical 3- dimensional space), and empirical model (offering good local forecasts), implemented as a Gaussian-process model. Prediction model for the city of Koper in Slovenia that has Mediterranean climate and problems with the ozone pollution is presented and used for improved one-day-ahead forecasting of the maximum hourly value within each day. The model validation results show that hybrid model improves ozone forecasts and provides better alert systems for the selected location.
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Paper Nr: 58
Title:

Design and Numerical Characterization of a First Stage of a High Capacity Multistage Centrifugal Pump
Authors:

Nicolas La Roche-Carrier, Guyh Dituba Ngoma and Walid Ghie
Abstract: In this paper, a numerical characterization of a first stage of a high capacity multistage centrifugal pump was performed for very high flow rates. A particular emphasis was placed on the diffuser design procedure. For this purpose, the equations of the continuity and the Navier-Stokes accounting for the boundary conditions were used by mean of ANSYS-CFX code to describe and to simulate the complex liquid flow in the multistage centrifugal pump. In order to identify the key parameters of the diffuser that can improve the pump stage performances, the effects of the inlet height of the diffuser vanes, the number of the diffuser vanes, the number of the diffuser return vanes, and the gap between the impeller and the diffuser on the pump stage head, brake horsepower and efficiency were analyzed. The validation of the developed model of a first pump stage was done comparing results of numerical simulations and experimental results obtained from a pump manufacturer.
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Paper Nr: 32
Title:

Petri Net Modeling and Simulation of Walking Behaviour for Design of a Bioinspired Robot Dog
Authors:

Zuhal Erden and Macit Araz
Abstract: Research in behavior-based design faces many challenges regarding the aids in conceptual design of biorobots, representation of a biological system’s behavior in a well formed modeling tool and therefore providing systematic transformation of this behavior into robot design. This paper reports a research that focuses on the development of a Petri Net model to represent a biological system’s behavior. The model is based on real time data collected from an experiment in which a dog is walking on a treadmill with a speed of 1km/h. The model has the ability of simulating the real time rhythm of dog's walking behavior utilizing colors and numbers as well as the step-by-step simulation. The aim is to observe the behavior of a walking dog in time domain as an early stage of conceptual design of a bioinspired robot dog. Main challenge is to develop a methodology to guide designer towards more creative designs based on bioinspired design ideas. The presented work is an early attempt to initiate a systematic approach towards the stated goal.
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Area 4 - Application Domains

Full Papers
Paper Nr: 18
Title:

Searching Vaccination Strategy with Surrogate-assisted Evolutionary Computing
Authors:

Zong-De Jian, Tsan-Sheng Hsu and Da-Wei Wang
Abstract: Agent-based stochastic simulation is an established approach to study infectious diseases. Its advantage is the flexibility to incorporate important concepts. The effect of various mitigation strategies has been demonstrated using simulation models. Most of the previous studies compared a few options with a few selected scenarios. We propose to use genetic algorithms to search for the best vaccination strategy for a given scenario with the simulation program as fitness scorer. Vaccination efficacy varies significantly. Therefore, the real challenge is to find a good strategy without the knowledge of it. The simulation software is efficient, yet still takes three minutes to complete a simulation run with Taiwan population. We use surrogate to speed up the search about 1000 times. The surrogate has the average of the absolute value of error around 0.284 percent and the rank correlation coefficient is greater than 0.98 for all the scenarios except one. The optimal solution with surrogate has fitness value very close to use simulations. The difference is generally less than one percent. We envision that an autonomous software searches through the huge scenario space with the help of surrogate function and adaptively executes simulation program to revise the surrogate function to produce higher fidelity surrogate and better search results.
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Paper Nr: 23
Title:

Modelling Population Growth, Shrinkage and Aging using a Hybrid Simulation Approach: Application to Healthcare
Authors:

Bożena Mielczarek and Jacek Zabawa
Abstract: This paper describes a hybrid simulation model that integrates the System Dynamic approach with discrete time control to formulate the projections of population evolution. The study relies on historical demographic data and the officially formulated scenarios for the most likely population projections developed for the region. The results of the simulation experiments provide valuable insights into dynamics of regional demographic trends and offer a well-defined starting point for future research in the health policy field. The intensity and structure of the demand for healthcare services depend heavily on age-gender profiles that change due to ongoing extensions of the average expected length of life, the aging of population, the continuing trend of declining number of births and the steadily growing number of deaths. The preliminary findings show promise in using the hybrid simulation approach for more advanced exploration of demography dependent health policy issues.
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Paper Nr: 29
Title:

Thermal Stability Simulation of MEMS Micro Scanner - Multi-physics Simulations Coupled with Experimental Verifications
Authors:

Seungoh Han, Chang-Hyeon Ji, Jae-Hyoung Park and Jong-Uk Bu
Abstract: A practical application of multi-physics simulations was presented. In order to analyse thermal stability of MEMS micro scanner, multi-physics simulation procedure was proposed and then verified by comparing the simulated results to the measured data. The proposed procedure started from defining simulation parameters and was verified stepwise by comparing the interim results with the related experimental data, which has increased the accuracy of the proposed, multi-physics simulation procedure. Based on those results, we could got more insight into the thermal stability issue and the allowable bias limit could be determined, which does not deteriorate the device performance significantly. The proposed simulation procedure is expected to contribute for successful commercialization of MEMS micro scanner by increasing its thermal stability.
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Paper Nr: 72
Title:

Cooperative Radio Resources Allocation in LTE_A Networks within MIH Framework: A Scheme and Simulation Analysis
Authors:

Mzoughi Houda, Faouzi Zarai, Mohammad S. Obaidat, Balqies Sadoun and Lotfi Kamoun
Abstract: Heterogeneity and convergence are two distinctive features for new generation networks like the Long Term Evolution-Advanced (LTE-A) system. LTE-A is now being deployed and is the way forward for high speed cellular services. LTE-A enhancements the four areas of capacity, coverage, inter-cells coordination, and cost. Improvements in these areas are based on using several technologies. Multiple-Input Multiple Output along with Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (MIMO/OFDMA) are two of the base technologies that are enablers. In addition, self-organizing and optimization (SON) technologies have been also developed to enable automatic configuration, optimization of network operations, including the 802.21 Media Independent Handover protocol (MIH), which is designed to optimize the vertical handover process. In this paper, we show the importance of inter-technologies and inter-entities cooperation, which can exploit heterogeneity as an enabler to improve the system capacity as well as the quality of service (QoS) for users. We present a new cooperative radio resource allocation scheme for LTE-A network to coordinate better the utilization of network’s available radio resources. We adopted the MIH framework, in order to facilitate the exchange between heterogeneous network entities to insure self-configuration of radio resource management parameters. We worked on allocating the right PRB to the right user at the right time. We also analyze some existing solutions and evaluate our proposed scheme using simulation analysis. Simulation results illustrate the performance gains brought by the proposed optimization, especially for average throughput of macro-cell users comparing to their initial performance within two-tier LTE-A network.
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Short Papers
Paper Nr: 25
Title:

A Dynamic Scheduling Problem in Cost Estimation Process of EPC Projects
Authors:

Nobuaki Ishii, Yuichi Takano and Masaaki Muraki
Abstract: The cost estimation process, carried out by the contractor before the start of a project, is a critical activity for the contractor in accepting profitable EPC projects in competitive bidding situations. Thus, the contractor should devote significant time and resources to the accurate cost estimation of project orders from clients. However, it is impossible for any contractor to devote enough time and resources to all the orders because such resources are usually limited. For this reason, the contractor must dynamically decide bid or no-bid on the orders at each order arrival, and allocate the limited resources to the chosen orders. To maximize the contractor’s profits, this study devises a heuristic scheduling method for dynamically selecting orders and allocating the limited resources to them, on the basis of the resource requirement of the order, the contractor’s resource utilization, and the expected profit from the order. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through simulation experiments using a project cost estimation process model.
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Paper Nr: 27
Title:

Future Prediction of Regional City based on Causal Inference using Time-series Data
Authors:

Katsuhito Nakazawa, Tetsuyoshi Shiota and Tsutomu Tanaka
Abstract: Regional cities in Japan have a lot of social issues. Various measures are being considered to solve these social issues, but it is difficult to ascertain and implement practical and effective measures to address them. In this study, we proposed a method for selecting indicators that have a causal relation to solve the social issues based on a causal inference. If there was a causal relation between two sets of time-series data, the slope of the approximation line of the time-shifted correlation coefficients at the base time returned a negative value. The causal inference was verified by using samples of time-series data and we constructed a network of the causal indicators based on the causal inference. In addition, we achieved future predictions via the vector autoregressive model using the network of causal indicators. The model was verified using the actual time-series data of the 87 regional cities. As a result, it was possible to simulate future predictions by introducing practical and effective measure that originated from the social issue.
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Paper Nr: 35
Title:

Finite Element Analysis of Spring-back Characteristics on Asymmetrical Z-shape Parts in Wiping Z-bending Process
Authors:

Wiriyakorn Phanitwong, Pakkawat Komolruji and Sutasn Thipprakmas
Abstract: In recent years, the Z-bending process was rarely investigated, especially for the asymmetrical Z-shape bending process. This causes the lacks of understanding on bending mechanism and spring-back characteristics and results in the difficulty in die design and process control for the spring-back characteristics. In the present research, therefore, the wiping asymmetrical Z-bending process was examined by using the finite element method (FEM) and laboratory experiments. On the basis of the stress distribution analysis, the different of spring-back characteristics between the symmetrical and asymmetrical wiping Z-bending processes were investigated and clearly identified. In addition, the effects of working process parameters, including bend angle and tool radius on spring-back characteristics were investigated and clearly identified via the changes of stress distribution analysis as well. To verify the accuracy of the FEM-simulation results, the laboratory experiments were carried out. The experiments were carried out to validate the FEM simulation results. The FEM simulation results showed a good agreement with the experimental results with reference to the bend angles.
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Paper Nr: 49
Title:

A DDS-based Distributed Simulation for Anti-air Missile Systems
Authors:

Dohyung Kim, Hyun-Shik Oh and Seong Wook Hwang
Abstract: This paper introduces the development of a distributed air-defense engagement simulation model based on data distribution service (DDS). To design and develop effectively, system developers need a high-resolution engagement simulation including complex engineering-level models and operational scenario models. Increasing the resolution of the model results in the growing model’s complexity which requires greater resources than that of a single computer. We tried to build a distributed engagement model using AddSIM-DDS which combines the Advanced distributed simulation environment (AddSIM) and DDS. We describe an air-defense scenario, overall structure of the model, and simulation construction on distributed nodes. We also define several DDS topic types for interoperation. Finally, we provide the results that show the validity and effectiveness of the DDS-based distributed simulation.
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Paper Nr: 57
Title:

Dynamic and Acoustic Properties of a Joisted Floor
Authors:

Edoardo Alessio Piana, Candida Petrogalli and Luigi Solazzi
Abstract: Lightweight structures find more and more applications in both vehicle and ship industries. To meet a growing demand, a variety of different types of joisted panels have been developed during the last few decades. One of the problems to deal with is the assessment of the acoustic performances of such panels once they are already mounted in their final place. In this case, it can be of importance to find a way to characterise their dynamic and acoustic properties, such as bending stiffness, internal losses and sound reduction index through non-destructive testing. A method for a quick determination of the bending stiffness of a lightweight joisted floor is presented. On the basis of the apparent bending stiffness and of the losses, it is possible to predict the sound reduction index of the panel in a fairly simple way. The results obtained from the mobility tests have been compared to the measurements carried out according to the ISO standard procedure.
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Paper Nr: 59
Title:

Material Behavior Simulation of 42CrMo4 Steel
Authors:

Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan and Kristina Markovic
Abstract: It is becoming increasingly important to make possible constitutive modelling and simulation of material behaviour for the prediction of possible failures in material. This can allow to the optimization of design of highly loaded engineering components. In order to achieve that goal, material parameters should be accurately determined for the chosen material model. The major step in material parameters identification is material behaviour simulation. The procedure of material behaviour simulation is based on the results of the fatigue testing on the materials’ samples. The paper presents the procedures required for the material behaviour simulation of 42CrMo4 steel, starting from the fatigue testing, through numerical procedures related to complex material model, which results in material parameters identification, to the validation of described procedures by comparison of the simulated and real materials response in cyclic loading conditions.
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Paper Nr: 63
Title:

Hardware-software Co-simulation of Self-organizing Smart Home Networks - Who am I and Where Are the Others?
Authors:

Bruno Kleinert, Franziska Schäfer, Jupiter Bakakeu, Simone Weiß and Dietmar Fey
Abstract: In this paper, we present our solution to simulate home automation networks on a functional level in our research project on self-organizing home automation network nodes. We simulate the nodes with our hardwaresoftware co-simulator, based on the virtual machine QEMU and the SystemC hardware simulator. The Virtual Distributed Ethernet suite is used to simulate several hardware-software co-simulators in a network. Furthermore, tools we developed to prepare network node disk images, configure the simulation environment, and generate Linux device drivers from hardware interface specifications are presented.
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Paper Nr: 30
Title:

Finite Element Analysis of Asymmetrical Leg-length in Closed U-bending Process
Authors:

Sutasn Thipprakmas, Untika Boochakul and Wiriyakorn Phanitwong
Abstract: In almost all industrial fields such as automobile and aerospace industries, in recent years, the precisely complicated shapes of channel and frame parts are increasingly applied. To fabricate these parts, the U-bending process being a common sheet-metal forming process is widely employed. However, the asymmetrical U-bending process lacks researches. Therefore, in this study, the effects of asymmetrical leg-length on spring-back characteristics in the U-bending process were investigated by using the finite element method (FEM) and laboratory experiments. Specifically, on the basis of stress distribution analysis, they were clearly clarified and also compared with those in the symmetrical leg-length case. These results revealed that, with asymmetrical leg-length in a U-shaped part, the changes in leg-length on one side did not result in any different spring-back characteristics and the obtained bend angle on the other side compared with the symmetrical U-shaped parts. Furthermore, the effects of leg-length on the spring-back characteristics were confirmed that the spring-back slightly increased as the leg-length increased. Laboratory experiments were performed to validate the accuracy of the FEM simulation results. Based on the bend angles and bend forces, the FEM simulation showed good agreement with the experiments in terms of both the bend angles and bending forces.
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Paper Nr: 71
Title:

Using Simulation for Strategic Blood Supply Chain Design in the Canadian Prairies
Authors:

John Blake and Ken McTaggart
Abstract: Since 2010, Canadian Blood Services has been modernizing its facility infrastructure. Current plans call for the amalgamation of production sites in the Prairie region by 2019. Under this plan existing production centres in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be consolidated into a single site in Calgary. Because of the potential impact to the distribution network, a simulation model of the logistics network was constructed in Visual Basic.Net, using an established simulation framework. Experiments were conducted to estimate the robustness of the network under varying assumptions for delivery interruptions and inventory reserves. Results suggest that, given reasonable assumptions on road network reliability, product demand, and inventory staging, either no, or very modest, changes to product wastage and product reliability should be expected after facility. This work demonstrates the application of a generic simulation modelling framework to resolve important policy questions.
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