Abstract: |
In this research, we generated a fuzzy control of carbon emissions that acts increasing or decreasing the
representative concentration pathway emissions proposed by the IPCC, in order to obtain a CO2 path that
would stabilize the global average surface temperature to a desired level. We used a simple linear climate
model that is driven primary by the Carbon emissions. We made simulations under the four RCPs activating
the control at different times, which give us a broad knowledge on when is possible to stabilize the temperature,
based in the current emissions path. We conclude that taking action earlier (via fuzzy control) will lead not
only to reach stabilization, but also, in some cases, to have economic growth allowing to increase emissions
at some points in time. Activating the control very late will initiate an oscillation on temperature which will
include not only a reduction of emissions but also a necessary anthropogenic net carbon sequestration. This
instrument is a common ground where specialists in diverse areas of climate change could contribute in order
to set the parameters that we should explore and simulate so that the we can make the best decisions. |